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About the Author

Nebula Award winner Esther Friesner is the author of more than 30 novels and over 150 short stories. She is also the editor of numerous popular anthologies. She is married, is the mother of two, harbors cats, and lives in Connecticut.You can visit Esther at www.sff.net/people/e.friesner/

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Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

Gathering Magic almost a year after I tamed my dream-lions, during the Festival of the Inundation, my life began to change as surely as the rising river changes the deepest heart of the Black Land.The Inundation is always a season of wild rejoicing. It’s the time when the god Hapy, fat and generous, makes the river overflow its banks to bring new life to the farmlands. A good flood means a good harvest, a good harvest means we’ll have more than enough to eat, that our Pharaoh’s reign is blessed, and that the gods love us.That year, when I was five, the priests of every temple in the city observed the rising of the Nile and declared that their prayers had given us a good flood and a fine harvest to come. All Akhmin filled the streets to celebrate the event with music, dance, song, feasting, and gladness. Sunlight flashed from the brilliantly painted walls of the temples and the enameled gold necklaces, bracelets, and earrings of the highborn men and women. The air was filled with a wonderful jumble of delicious scents from many food vendors. Everyone seemed to be laughing. Father carried me on his shoulders so that I could have a clear view of the festivi- ties. I was pleased to be able to see everything from up so high, but when I caught sight of the older girls dancing, singing, and playing their harps, rattles, and tambourines, I squirmed like a fresh-caught fish.“What’s the matter with you, my little bird?” Father asked, grabbing my ankles when I wriggled so hard that I nearly fell off his shoulders.“I want to get down!” I cried. “I want to dance, too!”He chuckled, but he didn’t let me go. “You’re not a bird anymore; you’re a kitten, wanting to pounce on anything that catches your eye. Well, little kitten, this dance is to please the gods and to thank them for all that they’ve given us. It’s a sacred thing, not a game for little girls to play at. If you want to dance for the gods someday, you will, but not now. When you’re older.”His voice was always loud, a trait he’d kept from his days commanding Pharaoh’s troops on the battlefield. One of the dancers who was waiting her turn to perform overheard him and left her group to approach us. I gasped when I saw her: She was so beautiful! Next to her, my dearly loved Mery would have looked like a little brown hen beside a long-limbed, dark-eyed gazelle. The dancer’s eyes were artfully outlined with black kohl, the lids glittering green as the reeds along the Nile, and her lips were tinted the rich red of sunset. I stared, fascinated by the dozens of gold charms adorning her tightly braided wig, but when she smiled at me and offered me her tambourine, I worshipped her with gratitude.While I bounced on Father’s shoulders, beating the little instrument with more enthusiasm than skill, she talked to him. At first I paid no attention to their conversation, but I soon began to feel Father’s back growing straighter and straighter, his shoulders tensing.“That will be enough, my darling,” he said, reaching up to still my hands. “Give the tambourine back to this young woman now and thank her.” I wondered why his voice sounded so strained, the way it did whenever I’d done something wrong that was too serious for him to laugh off.“Why so eager to be gone?” the dancer drawled, glancing up at Father from beneath lowered eyelids. “She can play with the tambourine a while longer. The child has talent as well as beauty. You should stay at least long enough to see me dance. I promise you, you won’t regret it.” She gave him a strange little half-smile.I didn’t know what the stranger was trying to do, giving my father such odd, sidelong looks; I just knew that he ?didn’t like it and neither did I. “I’m done,” I announced abruptly, handing back the tambourine. “Thank you very much. I want to go home now.”I saw the dancer’s lovely face turn ugly in an instant. She snatched the tambourine from my hands and muttered something under her breath. The only words I could make out were “that child . . . spoiled.”“I didn’t spoil anything!” I protested as Father carried me off.“And you never could,” he said fondly. “So let’s not spoil this happy day by going home too soon. There are still plenty of things to see and taste and try. Now tell me the truth, my kitten: Do you really want to go home, or did you just want to go away from that sharp-faced little dancer?”“Away,” I said. I took a deep breath and added: “I’m sorry.”“What for?” Father exclaimed. “For not liking her? That makes two of us.”“But I should have liked her,” I said. “She was beautiful, and she was kind to me. She let me play her tambourine, and she said nice things about me.”“My sweet one, beauty and favors and flattery don’t have anything to do with whether or not you should like someone. Affection isn’t something you can buy, not if it’s real. You still like Mery even when she scolds you, right?”“I love Mery,” I said loyally. “Even if she’s not as pretty as that dancer. She was much prettier than Mery, wasn’t she, Father?”“Hrmph.” Father coughed into his fist, or at least it sounded like a cough. “I don’t think so.”“You don’t?” What was wrong with Father, saying something like that? Mery was nice-looking, but nowhere near as lovely as the dancer.“No, I don’t,” he said firmly. “Anyway, there are more important things than beauty, dearest.”“But she was prettier than Mery, wasn’t she?” I insisted.“Let’s not worry about pretty and prettier,” Father said hastily. “And we won’t bother Mery with this. Besides, when you’re near, all the other girls look like old crocodiles. Now let’s go enjoy ourselves!” He broke into a brisk jog that made me shriek with delight as we raced back to the festival.From the Hardcover edition.

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Product details

Age Range: 12 and up

Grade Level: 7 - 9

Series: Princesses of Myth

Paperback: 400 pages

Publisher: Random House Books for Young Readers; Reprint edition (August 24, 2010)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0375856552

ISBN-13: 978-0375856556

Product Dimensions:

5.5 x 0.8 x 8.2 inches

Shipping Weight: 12 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.2 out of 5 stars

27 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#1,222,247 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

I love this book. It does a good job of pulling you into the day to day life in ancient Egypt while following a strong and capable woman in her struggles with life and love. It is a clean book and well written.

She loves them ...... She read them first when she was 9. She is now 11 and just finished another reading of them. There is a lot out there for her age....but not a lot with quality and meaningful content. These books are both entertaining and educational...like the best of historical fiction.

It’s a great book 10/10

Daughter 11 years old is studying Egyptian history at school, so I bought her this book, she loved it and it is appropriate for her age in all the matter.

My son, a 6th grader, read this book for a school report, so this is his review: Excellent book! Reading the second one, The Sphinx Queen, on my own because I liked it so much. Chose it over other choices and very glad.

Easy read and sweet story, we have been to Egypt and have read different stories, this one I enjoyed a lot.

This was interesting for its setting and characters, but the story felt familiar and slightly predictable. I still liked it but probably won't read more.

I really enjoyed this book! It was fantastic! It is an easy, fun read that you can't put down! I really enjoyed it

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Download PDF Comfort Woman: A Filipina's Story of Prostitution and Slavery under the Japanese Military (Asian Voices), by Maria Rosa Henson

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Review

Henson's book is different for two reasons: she experienced the tragedy firsthand and therefore speaks with authority; but she also speaks with the voice of healing, since she has lived with her nightmare for decades and survived, both physically and spiritually. Another amazing aspect of this book is that despite its title, it does not focus narrowly on the sex-slave controversy. Henson died in August 1997, but her words live on. Her example is unforgettable. (The Japan Times)This book makes clear that what the Japanese army did was only the worst example of oppression against women in the long history of colonialism and imperialism in the Philippines. It serves a corroborative text for historians, a call to arms for feminists and human rights activists, and, finally, a life-affirming reminder of the indomitability of the human spirit for all readers. (Persimmon)Maria Rosa Henson's Comfort Woman is a straightforward, painful account, simply told. A powerful account of a woman's life controlled by men, both Filipino and Japanese. (Feminist Formations)Serves as a good introduction to readers who may be approaching the subject of 'comfort women' for the first time. Henson's autobiography becomes more than just the telling of the untold but ultimately the revealing of the unseen and the unsaid. [She] is not only able to recount the nightmare of her abduction and confinement in a 'comfort station,' but she articulates the day to day degradation and hardship that women are subjected to long before and after the war is over. (Pilipinas)A compelling and moving account of one Filipina's ordeal under the Japanese military. It is also a story of survival, and of a lifelong quest for healing and for justice. Maria Rosa Henson deserves praise for her honesty and courage. By revealing to us her painful experiences, Mrs. Henson broke a fifty-year silence and made the world aware of the brutality of war and its savageness to women. We are greatly enriched by this story and inspired by how one woman can overcome such epic suffering and still have such compassion and such faith. (Corazon C. Aquino)

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About the Author

Maria Rosa Henson, 1928–1997, was one of thousands of Asian women forced into prostitution during World War II by the Japanese military. She told her story for the first time in the 1990s at the urging of the Task Force on Filipino Comfort Women.Yuki Tanaka is Research Professor at the Hiroshima Peace Institute of Hiroshima City University.

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Product details

Series: Asian Voices

Paperback: 116 pages

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. (March 28, 1999)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0847691497

ISBN-13: 978-0847691494

Product Dimensions:

5.6 x 0.3 x 8.6 inches

Shipping Weight: 7.7 ounces

Average Customer Review:

3.9 out of 5 stars

17 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#1,017,978 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

First of all, I don't doubt one word of this woman's story. The ability for people to persevere during war is truly remarkable, and Rosa's story is no different. The Japanese enslavement of comfort women is well documented.However, the translation and Kindle edition is very difficult to read. Random sentences and non-paragraphs appear out of nowhere. Also, parts of the beginning of the book seem almost like they are out of chronological order. It's a shame that the book couldn't have been translated and written to better honor Rosa's story. I am unhappy to have spent the money on a book so poorly laid out. I would have rather got it at the library.

I'm happy she shared her thoughts and pains to the world who seek the truth about the atrocities did Japanese Imperial, At this moments Japanese government is not address their concerns about the atrocities committed during the WWII, was really heartbreaking book to read I can't say I enjoyed to read it. Highly recommended someone who wants to know some history in WWII.

I feel privileged to have read this amazing account of survival against all odds! I am glad she. Shared the treatment of women during this turbulent time! Very well written, easy read, and well-worth the time! Would recommend to anyone! History should not be forgotten but learned from!

Bought for college history class

Very interesting.

Great! Exactly what I wanted!

great

I cried my entire time reading this book. I was disturbed and afraid I couldn't finish it, but I'm so glad I did. I'd recommend it to anyone.

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Ebook Download Sidewalk, by Mitchell Duneier

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Sidewalk, by Mitchell Duneier

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Review

“Sidewalk will radically change the way we think about ‘the public sphere.'” ―Robin D. G. Kelley, author of Yo Mama's Disfunktional!“An inspired, yet strategically conceived work that restores a sense of new possibility and passion to ethnography just as it was threatened by cliche through its recent popularity.” ―George Marcus, author of Ethnography through Thick and Thin“[Sidewalk] is in the best tradition of participant observation. If I were still teaching, I would want all of my students to read this book.” ―William Foote Whyte, author of Street Corner Society“An exciting and original approach to the problems of urban life, informed by years of intensive participation and by a deep understanding of social science thinking. No one has combined theory and intimate knowledge of city streets as successfully. A masterpiece of fieldwork.” ―Howard S. Becker, author of Outsiders“Duneier must be one of the outstanding ethnographers of our time: he renders visible what typically remains submerged as we take in the world at street level. This is a deep, complex, moving book that yanks you out of your own lived experiences of that world and draws you to another.” ―Saskia Sassen, author of The Global City“[A] magnificent book . . . Duneier is a professor of sociology, but he has a superb journalist's ear for quotes and the ability to limn character and scene. He writes, that is, as very few sociologists do: he stays on for years, immersed in his subject, as virtually no journalist will do.” ―Richard Eder, The New York Times“A necessary book . . . A work of frontline reportage, an inquiry into the economic and political and moral forces that are busy reconfiguring the city, [and] an urgent plea for justice, however couched it is in the careful, procedural, understating style of fieldwork.” ―Luc Sante, Village Voice Literary Supplement“Sidewalk is an intellectual treat and a student turn-on. I'm using it in my urban studies course and as a key reading for introductory sociology.” ―Harvey Molotch, co-author, Urban Fortunes “Insightful and compelling . . . . Capture[s] the pathos, struggle, joy, honor and dignity of the men and women of 'the sidewalk.'” ―Elaine Rivera, Chicago Tribune“Sidewalk brings us close to the hustle and bustle of urban street life--the book is a knowing, thoughtful exploration that will earn it a place among the classics of the documentary tradition.” ―Robert Coles“A nuanced study of the lives of impoverished street vendors in New York's Greenwich Village . . . . A work that adds much to our understanding of race, poverty, and our reactions to them.” ―Kirkus Reviews“I suspect this exemplary ethnography will, like Street Corner Society, speak to generations of readers . . . . The photos by Ovie Carter . . . and the appendix on method are worth the price of entry . . . . The entire book demonstrates . . . scrupulous care, caring, and respect . . . . Duneier uses theory to help him understand and explicate his observations, never for its own sake. Like all classic fieldworkers he is open to learn, to change, as a result of the ethnographic experience.” ―Joan Cassell, Washington University, American Anthropologist

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About the Author

Mitchell Duneier is an associate professor of sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of California at Santa Barbara. His first book, Slim's Table, received the 1994 Distinguished Publication Award from the American Sociological Association.Ovie Carter, a photographer for the Chicago Tribune, has received the Pulitzer Prize and multiple awards of Excellence from the National Association of Black Journalists.

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Product details

Paperback: 400 pages

Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux; 1st edition (December 20, 2000)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 9780374527259

ISBN-13: 978-0374527259

ASIN: 0374527253

Product Dimensions:

5.7 x 1.2 x 8.2 inches

Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.3 out of 5 stars

48 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#75,505 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

I love Duneier's work, going back to "Slim's Table." But this book captures something else; embedded within the text is Duneier's compassion for those he's working with, and who he is writing about. Almost like Vankatesh's accounts of the underground economy and Chicago gangs, this work explores how life on the streets, mostly through "legitimate" book selling, is just that: legitimate. Yet, Duneier delves into the complex nature of sponsorship and kinship in this work; how the men of the streets in Greenwich Village look out for one another and lead lives as meaningful as anyone with a "nine-to-five" job. Ethnographic accounts should always be approached with caution, in that they serve a purpose, usually the author's thesis or hypothesis. Duneier, however, really cares about the people with whom he works and is looking for change. His supplemental DVD with a lecture and video on this book really captures that. A must read for sociology students.

I can't say that I've ever had an interest in sociology; I happened across this book via a link on the This American Life homepage while looking for something completely unrelated.Wow, thank goodness for circumstance. This is a fantastic book for anyone interested in urban life. Everyone -- urban dwellers, suburbanites, country folk -- has their own preconceived notions about the unhoused. Mr. Duneier spends years (on and off) with the "written materials" vendors in Greenwich Village and exposes a wealth of information that the rest of us would otherwise never imagine.Written in a style that's very readable considering its academic relevance, this is a book that can't be overlooked. Holiday shopping for your urban friends is complete; this book is it.

Sidewalk takes you on an interesting adventure to a darker part of New York. Maybe not so dark if you visit, but the homeless there have another story to tell. Mitchell Duneier takes a trip to New York's Greenwich Village and dives into the lives of those less fortunate. Many of these men browsing the streets for items to sell at their tables gave up or even made the choice to be homeless. Check this book out and see for yourself what kind of society lives and breathes on the streets of this little part of town.

Sidewalk gives a great insight into the world of street vendors and panhandlers in New York from about two decades ago. Interesting read, so if you get this for your sociology class you won't be disappointed.

Needed for ethnography course.

This was by far the most enjoyable book I was required to read for my urban sociology class. Instead of grouping entire populations into one analysis, as so many of my other socilogical readings about urbanites, Mitch works from direct and personal experience with real urban individuals. The material reads like a story, and draws you in as you meet each new character and learn about thier lives. The insight I gained from this text opened my eyes to so much more in my sociological studies.

This is among the best ethnographies I have ever read. Duneier's work will open your eyes to life on the sidewalk and make you feel as though you have actually encountered the people of whom he writes. You will never think about homelessness the same way again. Very well done.

This was a very interesting book. I purchased it for a Community Studies class at my college. Honestly I was not expecting anything interesting and was prepared to bear my way though it for the sake of the class and my grade. I was very pleasantly surprised about how interesting this book actually is. It is written in a way that is very conversational, almost story teller like, yet it is still packed with interesting information. This book shows aspects and connections within society that most people will never see or understand. It is a window into a society within our society. You become attached to people this book writes about, you want to read more so you can find out what choice they made, and why. Duneier is an outsider submerging himself into a society unlike anything he has known for the sake of information and exploration and there is something fascinating about how he perceives the people he encounters and their lifestyles. I feel like I learned a lot from this book and have really changed my perspective on things I would have never before considered. I am really glad my teacher chose this book out of all the books that could have worked because I really leaned some valuable things through reading it. It was both captivating and informative. The book came very quickly, within a few days of purchase so that was great. Also this book was very reasonably priced for how good of a read it was.

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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't

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Amazon.com Review

Amazon Best Books of the Month, September 2012: People love statistics. Statistics, however, do not always love them back. The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver's brilliant and elegant tour of the modern science-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver finds predictions gone bad thanks to biases, vested interests, and overconfidence. But he also shows where sophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and occasionally been ignored to boot). In today's metrics-saturated world, Silver's book is a timely and readable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wield them. --Darryl Campbell

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From Bookforum

Silver doesn't offer one comprehensive theory for what makes a good prediction in his interdisciplinary tour of forecasting. But the book is a useful gloss on the tricky business of making predictions correctly. —Chris Wilson

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Product details

Hardcover: 544 pages

Publisher: Penguin Press; 1 edition (2012)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 159420411X

ISBN-13: 978-1594204111

Product Dimensions:

6.3 x 1.1 x 9.5 inches

Shipping Weight: 1.8 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.4 out of 5 stars

1,160 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#44,418 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

What could have been a difficult topic was very well handled. Provided insight in to disparate elements such as political forecasting, weather, chess, poker,baseball and the economy. Well done, especially the discussions related to Baysean analysis and the need to think in terms of probabilities.

This book was first published in 2012, at a time when Big Data (or if you prefer, big data) was only beginning to receive the attention it deserves as a better way to use analytics within and beyond the business world. One key point is that big data should also be right data and in sufficient quantity. I recently re-read the book, in its paperbound edition. Thde quality and value of its insights have held up remarkably well.In the years that followed publication of the first edition, as Nate Silver notes in the new Preface, the perception that statisticians are soothsayers was proven to be an exaggeration, at best, and a dangerous assumption, at worst. This new edition "makes some recommendations but they are philosophical as much as technical. Once we're getting the big stuff right -- coming to a better [i.e. more accurate and more reliable] understanding of probability and uncertainty; learning to recognize our biases; appreciating the value of diversity, incentives, and experimentation -- we'll have the luxury of worrying about the finer points of technique."In the Introduction to the First Edition, Silver observes, "If there is one thing that defines Americans -- one thing that makes us exceptional -- it is our belief in Cassius' idea that we are in control of our own fates." In t his instance, Silver refers to a passage in Shakespeare's play, Julius Caesar, when Cassius observes:"Men at some time are masters of their fates.The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars,But in ourselves, that we are underlings."(Act 1, Scene 2, Lines 146-148)Cassius' assertion has serious implications and significant consequences. It is directly relevant to a theory named after Reverend Thomas Bayes (1701–1761), who first provided an equation that allows new evidence to update beliefs in his An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances (1763). Silver: "Bayes's theorem is nominally a mathematical formula. But it is really much more than that. It implies that we must think differently about our ideas [predictions, for example] -- and how to test them. We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. We must think more carefully about the assumptions and beliefs that we bring to a problem."Silver cites another passage in Julius Caesar when Cicero warns Caesar: "Men may construe things, after their fashion / Clean from the purpose of things themselves." According to Silver, man perceives information selectively, subjectively, "and without much self-regard for the distortions this causes. We think we want information when we want knowledge." I take "want" to have a double meaning: lack and desire. Silver goes on to suggest, "the signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth. This is a book about the signal and the noise...We may focus on those signals that advance our preferred theory about the world, or might imply a more optimistic outcome. Or we may simply focus on the ones that fit with bureaucratic protocol, like the doctrine that sabotage rather than an air attack was the more likely threat to Pearl Harbor."In their review of the book for The New Yorker (January 25, 2013), Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis observe: "Switching to a Bayesian method of evaluating statistics will not fix the underlying problems; cleaning up science requires changes to the way in which scientific research is done and evaluated, not just a new formula." That is, we need to think about how we think so that we can make better decisions.In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman explains how an easy question ("How coherent is the narrative of a given situation?") is often substituted for a more difficult one ("How probable is it?"). And this, according to Kahneman, is the source of many of the biases that infect our thinking. Kahneman and Tversky's System 1 jumps to an intuitive conclusion based on a “heuristic” — an easy but imperfect way of answering hard questions — and System 2 lazily endorses this heuristic answer without bothering to scrutinize whether it is logical). And this, according to Kahneman, is the source of many of the biases that infect our thinking. System 1 jumps to an intuitive conclusion based on a “heuristic” — an easy but imperfect way of answering hard questions — and System 2 lazily endorses this heuristic answer without bothering to scrutinize whether it is logical.When an unprecedented disaster occurs, some people may feel at least some doubt that they are in control of their fate. Nate Silver offers this reminder: "But our bias is to think we are better at prediction than we really are. The first twelve months of the new millennium have been rough, with one unpredicted disaster after another. May we arise from the ashes of these beaten but not bowed, a little more modest about our forecasting abilities, and a little less likely to repeat our mistakes."A Jewish proverb suggests that man plans and then God laughs. The same could be said of man's predictions.

This is the best general-readership book on applied statistics that I've read. Short review: if you're interested in science, economics, or prediction: read it. It's full of interesting cases, builds intuition, and is a readable example of Bayesian thinking.Longer review: I'm an applied business researcher and that means my job is to deliver quality forecasts: to make them, persuade people of them, and live by the results they bring. Silver's new book offers a wealth of insight for many different audiences. It will help you to develop intuition for the kinds of predictions that are possible, that are not so possible, where they may go wrong, and how to avoid some common pitfalls.The core concept is this: prediction is a vital part of science, of business, of politics, of pretty much everything we do. But we're not very good at it, and fall prey to cognitive biases and other systemic problems such as information overload that make things worse. However, we are simultaneously learning more about how such things occur and that knowledge can be used to make predictions better -- and to improve our models in science, politics, business, medicine, and so many other areas.The book presents real-world experience and critical reflection on what happens to research in social contexts. Data-driven models with inadequate theory can lead to terrible inferences. For example, on p. 162: "What happens in systems with noisy data and underdeveloped theory - like earthquake prediction and parts of economic and political science - is a two-step process. First, people start to mistake the noise for a signal. Second, this noise pollutes journals, blogs, and news accounts with false alarms, undermining good science and setting back our ability to understand how the system really works." This is the kind of insight that every good practitioner acquires through hard-won battles, and continues to wrestle every day both in doing work and in communicating it to others.It is both readable and technically accurate: it presents just enough model details yet avoids being formula-heavy. Statisticians will be able to reproduce models similar to the ones he discusses, but general readers will not be left out: the material is clear and applicable. Scholars of all stripes will appreciate the copious notes and citations, 56 pages of notes and another 20 pages of index, which detail the many sources. It is also important to note that this is perhaps the best general readership book from a Bayesian perspective -- a viewpoint that is overdue for readable exposition.The models cover a diversity of areas from baseball to politics, from earthquakes to finance, from climate science to chess. Of course this makes the book fascinating to generalists, geeks, and breadth thinkers, but perhaps more importantly, I think it serves well to develop reusable intuition across domains. And, for those of us who practice such things professionally, to bring stories and examples that we can tell and use to illustrate concepts with the people we inform.There are three audiences who might not appreciate the book as much. First are students looking for a how-to book. Silver provides a lot of pointers and examples, but does not get into nuts and bolts details or supply foundational technical instruction. That requires coursework in research methods and and statistics. Second, his approach to doing multiple models and interpreting them humbly will not satisfy those who promote a naive, gee-whiz, "look how great these new methods are" approach to research. But then, that's not a problem; it's a good thing. The third non-fitting audience will be experts who desire depth in one of the book's many topic areas; it's not a technical treatise for them and I can confidently predict grumbling in some quarters. Overall, those three audiences are small, which happily leaves the rest of us to enjoy the book.What would make it better? As a pro, I'd like a little more depth (of course). It emphasizes games a little too much for my taste. And a clearer prescriptive framework could be nice (but also could be a problem for reasons he illustrates). But those are minor points; it hits its target better than any other such book I know.Conclusion: if you're interested in scientific or statistical forecasting, either as a professional or layperson, or if you simply enjoy general science books, get it. Cheers!

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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't PDF